On Tuesday, a state law in Maine that would have redefined marriage to include same-sex couples was repealed. According to FoxNews:
Voters in the northeastern state of Maine repealed a state law that would have allowed same-sex couples to wed, dealing the gay rights movement a heartbreaking defeat in the corner of the country most supportive of gay marriage.
Gay marriage has now lost in every single state — 31 in all — in which it has been put to a popular vote. Gay-rights activists had hoped to buck that trend in Maine — known for its moderate, independent-minded electorate — and mounted an energetic, well-financed campaign.
Whenever the people are asked if marriage should be redefined to include homosexual couples, the answer is a clear no.
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“There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come.” — Victor Hugo
Give it time. All 50 states will likely permit gay marriage by 2050. The younger population of voters are much, much more supportive of gay rights than people who grew up in more conservative times. By the time the current 18 year old voters are 38, the USA will be be more liberal than you can possibly handle.
If you look at the stats of Prop 8 (California only): http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/COI-03-Aug-GayRights.pdf, there are some interesting points:
Table 1B: Voters age 65 and older were the most against gay marriage (75%). In younger and middle aged crowds, it was much closer to 50/50, with pro-gay marriage having a tiny edge. It is more than likely that once the 65+ group are no longer voting, and a new youth of voters has emerged, the scales will be tipped.
Table 1B: The college educated crowd is about 12 percentage points more supportive of gay marriage than the high school diploma crowd. We can expect the percentage of college educated Americans only to grow through the years.
This is only true, of course, if we keep the assumption that there is a real correlation between age and gay tolerance, as well as the correlation between education level and gay tolerance. It seems to be the case, for whatever reason.
Now, there is also the correlation between being traditionally religious and unsupportive of gay rights. According to recent studies, the self-proclaimed “non-religious” population has doubled since 1990. There is also more of a shift in percentages from Protestantism to Catholicism, which is significantly more gay-friendly.
If you take all the significant statistical correlations into account (and please pipe in with any ones I missed), it looks like the inevitable result is a nationwide victory for gay marriage.
I haven’t looked at the statistics for other states, but I don’t see a reason why the correlations will be any different.
–Dan
Dan A.,
How in the world can you claim to know what the USA will look like in 2050? And if human society through the ages has not recognized same-sex “marriage,” why do you think it will suddenly “work” in the future?
One more observation: Many young people are more liberal when younger and more conservative when older, so that should be factored in too.
Dr. Brown
Look at England pre and post Wilberforce. Nations can change Dan.
Dr. Brown,
While I’m obviously not saying I have crystal ball, I do believe there are obvious signposts to where the country is going in this regard.
Currently, the two legs holding up the fight against gay marriage are bigotry and unproven religious dogma. To sum it up, “Gays are gross,” and “God hates homosexuality.” The first is a subjective statement that is fading as people become acclimated to alternative lifestyles. The second is a statement consistent with the Bible, but one that less and less people are believing these days, even Christians.
It’s becoming clearer to educated Americans that there is no real practical reason to ban gay marriage. It’s not a tax issue or a public welfare, beyond scare tactics of “your son will be taught to consider dating boys.”
And human society having a long history of depriving a people rights does not mean there can’t be adjustments as people become more intelligent and empathetic. Shutting women out of all leadership, money making, and political roles, was very common worldwide, but we’ve adjusted to the better, to the chagrin of “it ain’t broke, dont’ fix it,” types.
Letting black people become teachers, professors, and doctors scared a lot of people too.
Yes, gay marriage and race/gender are different. The difference is that the race/gender rights concerns, as silly as they were, had MUCH more practical fears associated with them. Having an unqualified doctor operating on you was a real fear. Having a woman in politics make over-emotional decisions was a real fear. The worst case scenario, though unfounded, was still threatening.
In gay marriage the worst case scenario is a lot more fuzzier. There’s not much to fear aside from a bigoted, “I don’t want my son to grow up in a world where it’s ok to be gay.”
This is why anti-gay marriage is on it’s way out. Whenever something stands entirely on bigotry and unbigoted religious dogma, the educated, intelligent crowd will always grow out of it.
–Dan
P.S.– Dr. Brown, you are correct that people can get more conservative, as they age. However, the trend towards gay marriage acceptance across all age groups has progressed over the decades.
Dan A.,
Because you’re misunderstanding the present, you’re unable to predict the future. Your opening statement is so biased as to be beyond belief to me. Do you not understand why we want to uphold the only definition of marriage known to the human race in history?
Dr. Brown
Dan A.,
By your opening statement, I mean beginning in your second paragraph. It is unthinkable to me that you can actually judge thinking people as you do, and yet do it in the name of enlightenment. The double standard is breathtaking to me — not to mention inaccurate.
Dr. Brown,
I believe that your oft stated sociological reasons for a gay marriage ban are similar to William Lane Craig’s Kalam argument. While not illogical itself, the argument is entirely manufactured to support your pre-existing belief that homosexuality is unholy and must be stopped.
If you disproved Kalam and all of Craig’s comsological and historical arguments, he’ll still be a fervent believer, because his faith lies in something other than external evidence. He’s even admitted that if you put him in a time machine and disproved the ressurection, he’d still believe.
SImilarly, if none of these sociological implications were of issue, you would still rally for a Vote Yes on Prop 8, because God said so. Am I wrong here? The arguments you are making are tools to support a religious conviction. This is why it’s harder to take them seriously.
Conversely, if upon further analysis and prayer, you found that you’d made a mistake and God approved of homosexuality, your concerns about American society would be a lot smaller, would they not?
There was another article on this site earlier about a man carrying over his shoulder a large cross, in order to evangelize. The policemen were coming up with all sorts of reasons why he must legally stop carrying the cross. It was obvious that their entire issue was with him evangelizing, not anything safety related. Maybe they had a point here or there about the safety, but that wasn’t the issue.
From what I’ve seen, these worries about society crumbling from letting gays marry (usually people they live with already) do not come from non-Christians and non-bigots. They come from believers and people who cringe at the sight of gays holding hand.
–Dan
Dan A.,
First, God’s ways are best and have been proven for millennia.
Second, there are many reasons to reject the idea that marriage should be redefined. I think you know the links on my websites that substantiate this point.
What troubles me is the extreme bias in your position, reflected in how you view other people’s viewpoints. That’s what troubles me and that’s why I entered the discussion.
You are in my prayers!
Dr. Brown
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